Hefner on the Topic of China’s Energy, Political and Economic Development

(Long before others recognized China’s development potential, especially for the 21st Century, Hefner was speaking and writing of the importance of China and its energy, political and economic development)

  • 1984, April 16, letter to Schechun Xu in reference to “China Total Energy ‘84”in Guangzhou: “China should develop its vast onshore natural gas resource to fuel the most efficient energy system available to the world – a methane system of direct use and cogeneration and combined cycle generated electricity.”
  • 1984, June 20, “From the Top of Jingshan Park”: “Surely the ‘opening’ of China has gotten into more than the full swing of its beginning! The pendulum has begun its great swing in the opposite direction which will carry China to the development of its full potential as the world enters its 21st Century and I predict in full economic and political cooperation with America and its allies. Can we hope that such an alliance with China and its allies will bring the world to a century of peace?!!!”
  • 1984, June 29, letter to Tang Xingbo, Consul General of the People’s Republic of China, Houston, Texas: “I am totally confident that China’s natural gas resource base is so vast that not only could the supplies be used for electricity generation but for commercial and industrial uses such as fertilizer and petrochemical plants.”
  • 1984, July 8, newspaper article by Mary Jo Nelson, The Sunday Oklahoman, quotes are from Robert A. Hefner III referring to China: “By early in the next century, the vast population will comprise a fully developed world superpower…They have their population growth under control and very soon after the beginning of the next century, they will be among the developed world an economic and political force…The growth will be enormous. The development of new markets will be huge. The potential in many ways in nearly unlimited.”
  • 1984, July 11, letter to Ambassador Chris Phillips, China (U.S.) Trade Council, Washington, D.C.: “I find the prospect of China’s joining the fully developed world as a super power early in the next century not only a real possibility and an exciting challenge but certainly one full or enormous opportunity, and I would add responsibility for the Western developed economies, particularly the United States. Isn’t it wonderful to dream of a fully developed and technologically capable China with deep economic and political ties with the United States and its allies and we with China and its allies leading to a global balance which might very well bring us a century or so of world peace!…China must begin the rapid development of its vast onshore natural gas reserves which I believe to be at least as large as those of the United States.”
  • 1984, December 17, letter to Chairman Deng Xiaoping: “I believe you are the helm of a great undertaking which I have described to my son as having more influence on his life and the lives of his children and grandchildren than any one thing in process on earth…The development of China to her full capacity will require not only the greatest amount of human energy and spirit in addition to abundant sources of acceptably priced energy necessary for economic growth and an elevated standard of living and quality of life, but also the important necessity of domestically produced energy in order to insure the maintenance of long term economic and political security. We believe it is of utmost importance for China to immediately begin the exploration and development on onshore natural gas because onshore natural gas can be quickly developed and efficiently and quickly converted to electricity to meet the possibility of increasing near term energy shortages…Your near term economic goals will continue to call for increasing energy use…your air quality continues to deteriorate due to the immediate necessity of continued and increased use of coal…The gas potential of Sichuan Province…is comparable to the geological province of the Anadarko Basin located in Oklahoma and Texas…Based on a very good geological analogy, Sichuan Province should contain 200 trillion cubic feet of gas.”
  • 1985, January 29, letter to Tang Ke, Minister of the Ministry of Petroleum: “Sichuan Southwest Bureau for Petroleum Administration possesses two kinds of rich and abundant resources in the Sichuan Basin: one is the undeveloped, large, deep natural gas resource with long (production) exploitation term; the other is the large, high-quality, intelligent and capable human resource.”
  • 1985, February 11, letter to Vice Premier Li Peng: “China’s vast quantities of onshore natural gas will have real and practical value for you…China’s onshore natural gas reserves are at least as large as those of the U.S…Natural gas is not only domestically abundant onshore in China but also is the most efficient primary energy fuel and will without doubt become the dominant source of primary energy for the most successful 21st century economies leads me to believe the development of China’s onshore natural gas is essential to the successful achievement of your great undertaking…I hold no doubts that China will attain the goals undertaken for achievement, by the beginning of the Century and much more! I also believe that these goals are more than a responsibility for all Chinese and market opportunities for developed economies. I believe these goals and intended achievements extend to all of us in the world with capacity to help as both an obligation and responsibility because there can be no doubt that a developed China with world economic, political and cultural intercourse will create a new global balance leading to the possibility of a century or more of peace and a renewed flourishing of civilization.”
  • 1985, March 10, newspaper article by Ed Kelley, The Sunday Oklahoman, quotes from Robert A. Hefner III referring to China: “The development of new markets will be huge.” Also, Robert A. Hefner III predicted “enormous growth.”
  • 1985, March 25-26, speech/paper presented at the World Bank, Paris: “I hold absolutely no doubt that the abundance of deep continental basins within China’s large land mass contain, as a minimum, gas reserves not only equal to the  United States but probably equal to all of North America, and possibly equal to Russia…China’s arrival early in the next Century with a flourishing, productive population and technologically efficient developed economy will fundamentally alter the world’s direction. China’s full development will without doubt create a new global balance which should lead to a century or more of world peace and thus a new flourishing of all civilization full of increased cultural and economic competition leading to levels of dialectic in all phases of civilization never before achieved…Chairman Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic approach to change has already begun to significantly improve life in China and thereby has fueled a dynamic spirit which permeates all China and I believe will insure the achievement of China’s goals to become a modern technologically developed society by the beginning of the 21st Century.  China is poised for one of the largest modernization drives in world history which, of course, presents numerous near and long term opportunities for foreign companies.  The Chinese are looking to the developed nations for foreign risk capital, technical expertise and modern equipment; and the industrialized economies are looking to supply the needs of an enormous market created by 1.2 billion consumers having new purchasing power in hand and seeking a higher quality of life. China and its future, a future which I believe is now on its course with little risk of sudden reversal for the next 50 years, undoubtedly offers a vast market frontier full of predictable and unpredictable opportunities for those who understand China, its rich culture and heritage, and who also possess the practical abilities and technology for fruitful cooperation in China’s future successes…There is no doubt that the key to China’s realization of the “Four Modernizations” lies in the motivation of its vast capable and able population coupled with abundant, reliable energy sources and a productive agricultural system. I hold no doubts that China will attain its many goals on schedule as we enter the 21st Century. I also believe that these goals are more than a responsibility for all Chinese and market opportunities for developed economies.  I believe these goals and intended achievements extend to all of us in the world with capacity to help as both an obligation and responsibility because there can be no doubt that a developed China with world economic, political and cultural intercourse will create a new global balance leading to the possibility of a century or more of peace and a renewed flourishing of all civilization.”
  • 1985, March 27, newspaper article in The Journal Record, quotes are from Robert A. Hefner III: “China’s arrival early in the next century, with a flourishing, productive population and technologically efficient developed economy, will fundamentally alter the world’s direction…China’s successful development will without doubt create a new global balance…Thus it should lead to a new flourishing of all civilization full of increased cultural and economic competition.”
  • 1985, April 1, letter to Ling Qing, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, Permanent Representative, People’s Republic of China, New York: “From our experience in the United States, we believe China has undeveloped gas reserves at least equal to those of the U.S. and more probably as large as all of North America.”
  • 1985, May 2, letter to Vice Minister Zhu Rongji: “Personally, I am very optimistic on the long term possibilities which will emanate from the successful development of China. As I have said publicly many times, I believe China is much more than a market opportunity for the industrialized economies; China’s goals for the next Century are a global responsibility. And, I deeply believe that a fully developed China with strong economic, cultural and political ties to the Western World through the United States and its allies will create a new global balance which certainly has the potential for bringing our civilization a Century or two of world peace.”
  • 1985, May 1, newspaper article by Rosie Wu in China Daily Business Weekly, quotes are from Robert A. Hefner III: “Development of natural gas reserves is critical to China’s modernization campaign because gas is non-polluting and will free up more coal for export. As the world’s largest developing country, China must plan for energy needs that will skyrocket with industrialization. But China will be successful because of the energy and intelligence of its people.”
  • 1985, November 27, letter to Chen Peidong, Chengdu University of Science & Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan: “How important it would be [in China] to use clean natural gas instead of that dirty old coal!
  • 1986, March 6-8, speech at Leadership Square during “A Celebration of China”, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: “There’s no question in my mind and, as many of you know I’m quite an optimist, but there’s no question in my mind that the development of China, the modernization of China will come about. And early on in the next century we’ll be living with a modernized China and the entire world I think will be restructured with new global equilibrium.”
  • 1986, March 14, letter to Li Peng, Vice Premier, State Council: Wrote of “…the abundance of undeveloped supplies of natural gas in China and the importance of the development of that resource for the modernization of China.”
  • 1986, March 17, letter to Deng Xiaoping: “…my belief as an exploration geologist of the vast undeveloped natural gas reserves in China…I believe…in the development of Sino-American relationships which I deeply believe can lead to a new global equilibrium, a century or more of world peace, and a new flowering in the quality of life for all civilization.”
  • 1986, June 25, letter to Yao Yilin, Vice Premier, State Council: “I am confident China’s natural gas reserves are at least equal to those of North America. Increases in the use of natural gas will result in a substantial near-term improvement in the environment, an increase in the efficiency of the ground transportation system through the reduction of the necessity for coal transport, and an overall improvement in the quality of daily life and therefore the productivity of the people.”
  • 1986, December 3, letter to Yang Chengxu, Ambassador from the People’s Republic of China to Austria: “I feel very strongly that it would be in China’s best interests to pursue an energy path which would make full use of its natural gas by continuing the development of the natural gas infrastructure. A natural gas energy technology is for many reasons by far the best least-cost path to a clean abundant energy system for the development of China’s economy…I am a deep believer in the reforms now going on in China and I believe there is no doubt that your people will be successful in achieving their most noble goals for the rest of this century and into the next.  For these reasons it is my opinion that the ongoing developments in China today will undoubtedly change the world for the better by giving the world a new geostrategic balance.  In order to do my small part in the development of cultural relations between the United States and China, I am engaged in an effort to bring contemporary oil painting from China to the United States and other Western nations.  We believe that through the exhibition of contemporary Chinese oil painting that the people of our country will gain insight into modern Chinese culture and a view to the future through these wonderful works of art depicting the changes now going on in China.   Additionally, the development of a market will assist the artists to continue to flourish in their new activities.”
  • 1987, April, opening the historic Harkness House Exhibition of contemporary Chinese Oil paintings, New York City: “I hold no doubt that history will accord extraordinary significance to contemporary Chinese oil painting…I hold a deep belief that a modernized and economically strong China, as a full participating partner in our global civilization, will create a force long missing and critically essential for geostrategic stability, allowing the possibility for lasting world peace. Such stability could lead to reallocation of global resources away from arms and toward enhancing the quality of life, creating the potential for an undreamed of Renaissance.”
  • 1988, June 16, letter to Tang Ke, Vice Chairman, China International Trust Investment Corp.: “As I see the Chinese economy developing, I believe the development of your energy resources, particularly clean and efficient natural gas, will become more important. “
  • 1988, December 12, letter to Ma Yuzheng, Consul General, consulate of The People’s Republic of China, Los Angeles, California: “I believe the energy of the 21st Century will be natural gas and that China should emphasize developing this efficient and clean energy resource rather than coal and/or nuclear.”
  • 1989, March 13-19, magazine article in the Beijing Review on Robert A. Hefner III, quotes are from Robert A. Hefner III: “I have a deep belief in China, China’s future, and the fact that China will be successful in modernizing and becoming a globally important economy. I believe this can and will be done because of the attributes existing in the Chinese people themselves, the fact that they are not hegemonic and the fact that they have a great continent with great natural resources. The Chinese could in fact change the world forever by reshaping the geostrategic balance and providing the circumstances that might well allow for centuries of world peace and, as a result, a new global renaissance.”
  • 1990, August 13, letter to Xu Ji, Minister, Counselor for Economics, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China, Washington, D.C.: “The People’s Republic of China contains vast reserves of natural gas which have yet to be explored and developed.”
  • 1992, March 5, letters to each member of Oklahoma’s congressional delegation regarding China’s Most Favored Nation status: “I’ve seen the development of free enterprise [in China], which is now responsible for about half of China’s gross national product. The development of free enterprise is the predecessor of human rights. China is on a slow but steady course toward higher standards of living for its giant population by the steady expansion of its economy from the bottom up. By so doing, over one billion Chinese are improving their daily circumstances. We should not act to derail this course.”
  • 1992, March 31, letter to Ambassador Zhu Qizhen, Embassy of the People’s Republic of China, Washington, D.C.: “You can be assured I will continue to work toward the unconditional renewal of China’s MFN status.”
  • 1992, October 29, letter to Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, Snowmass, Colorado: “China has recoverable economic natural gas resources at least equal to those of North America, but more probably two or more times that size…There are adequate natural gas resources in the region to provide China with sufficient natural gas to supply a growing population and vigorous economic growth while holding in check, or even lowering China’s CO2 output over the coming decades. For those interested in containing climate change, the conversion of China’s economy to natural gas should become an essential issue.”
  • 1994, February 15, letter to Ronald H. Brown, U.S. Secretary of Commerce: “For a decade I have been certain that China is destined to become America’s largest marketplace. As we grow in our economic relations and friendships, it is my opinion that it will be a U.S./China relationship, forged through the marketplace, that is the foundation for the 21st century world order.”
  • 1994, February 15, letter to Hazel O’Leary, U.S. Secretary of Energy: “I am firmly convinced that China’s natural gas resource base is at least equal to, if not larger than, that of North America.”
  • 1994, March 23, letter to U.S. President William J. Clinton: “In the 21st century, one of the fundamental requirements for American economic growth will be robust trade with China.  The U.S. and China will be the two largest economies early in the next century and unfortunately, because China plans for the long-term, policy mistakes made today will easily cost American jobs and loss of GNP growth for a decade or longer.”
  • 1994, April 3, speech on China at World Affairs Conference, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado: “In the end, I say that the key to China’s future economic growth is affordable clean energy and information technology.  As those come, I think that the other things will largely take care of themselves and that with these two, China just might, and I am an optimist, but I would say it is better than a 50/50 probability, be able to sustain its current economic growth for a period never before seen in human history.”
  • 1994, May 3, letter to U.S. President William J. Clinton: “I hold that 1) throughout most of the 21st century, like Great Britain in the 19th century and America in the 20th century, China will be the principal economic engine and 2) that the best possible course for the 21st century order will be forged principally by mutually advantageous, peaceful, bilateral relationships between the two great world powers of the era – China and the United States.  Therefore, you and your Administration could not treat history better than by 1) recognizing the multiplicity of issues involved in the reality of this global balance, and 2) setting a fresh new diplomatic course to engage China in the full breadth of what this implies. Global leadership requires such an all encompassing, all engaging vision.”
  • 1994, May 16, letter to William H. Overholt, author of The Rise of China: “I believe that China will be the largest economy throughout most of the 21st century.”
  • 1994, July 19, letter to Faith Cline, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy: “I came to the firm conclusion several years ago that China has recoverable economic natural gas resources at least equal to those of North America, but more probably two or more times that size…If natural gas use were promoted in China, there would be a corresponding decrease in CO2 emissions for both China and the world.”
  • 1994, December 16, from The Hefner Report “Global Turning Point”, by Robert A. Hefner III: “Between 1984 and 1987, I spent a cumulative year in China…It was then and there that I personally became convinced that the opening and reforms of China were unstoppable and, as a result, its economy would become the global engine of the 21st century…China has the opportunity to become the principal engine of the 21st century economy…Greater China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong, is approaching a superpower economy today. China is on its way to regaining its historical role as a pinnacle of civilization. The only systemic stumbling block to China’s continuing long-term economic growth is not political turbulence or bouts of extreme inflation but rather the limits to new economic growth produced by the energy consumed to produce its near and medium term growth. This is because China today intends to provide the enormous quantities of energy needed for continued growth with its vast coal reserves and history clearly shows us that coal simply won’t work for a modern economy.”
  • 1995, August 20, in summary of remarks to U.S. President William J. Clinton, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, meeting: “The 21st century order will be shaped by China and America and both sides must now begin to shape a mutual understanding of this order.”
  • 1995, September 29, letter to Li Daoyu, Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to the U.S.: “The 21st century order will be shaped by China and America and both sides must now begin to shape a mutual understanding of this order.”
  • 1995, October 30, letter to Qian Zuosheng, Chinese Consulate, Los Angeles, California: “The U.S. and China will be the two largest economies early in the next century…The best possible future for both our countries would be to forge a mutually beneficial long-term trading partnership and together become the principal organizers of the 21st century world order.”
  • 1996, April 24, letter to Dean Paul Wolfowitz, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland: “China will be the largest economy for most of the 21st century, and if we are to have a peaceful and productive world, the United States and China will have to understand each other by understanding the realities of each of our countries.  Our bilateral relationships, as well as those established within the global institutions, must be based upon trust and respect and the inclusion of China.  China is entering the global marketplace like a shooting star, without the time or the controls for much of what we demand; therefore, our policy should not simply be ‘engagement’, but should be highly proactive.  I believe a proactive approach with respect for Chinese culture will be the only effective way to bring about improving relations that can lead to nearly unimaginable bilateral benefits, not to mention world stability.  However, this will take strong leadership that rises above the daily opinion polls, which, of course, reflect the bias of the Western press.”
  • 1997, March, Introduction to Robert A. Hefner III’s book Through An Open Door: “My collection began in 1985 while bouncing along some old dirt roads on the way to visit oil and gas fields in what seemed the middle of nowhere in Sichuan province, China. Everywhere we turned, we were surrounded by a budding economy; there were free markets, cottage industries of every sort and new homes going up on every farm…As I reflected on all that surrounded me, I was reminded of the Renaissance and the turn of the last century – other periods of revolutionary change that became so intensely influential and historically important to the arts.”
  • 2004, December 16, Robert A. Hefner III notes on Sino American relations: “As I peer into the 21st and 22nd centuries, I see the possibility that the bilateral relationship between China and the USA to be the defining global relationship. As in all relationships the result can be enormously positive or negative. To concentrate on the positive side, a well-developed, mutually beneficial strategic partnership could portend a new balance in our currently troubled, often chaotic world that could provide a new global stability of a kind never before achieved, certainly in the modern world, that will allow markets to work more efficiently and effectively than in human history; circumstances that undoubtedly would bring forth more stable and possibly more vital economic growth than heretofore ever experienced. Such growth could raise enormous populations out of poverty and finance the education of more of the world’s people than ever in human history. Just imagine what a stable and growing global economy could accomplish when coupled with global information technology.”