Hefner on the Topic of Energy Transitions’ Macroeconomic Uplifts in Standard of Living and Quality of Life
(For over two decades, Hefner has been speaking and writing of the Grand Energy Transition from wood to coal, then coal to oil, and then from coal and oil to natural gas; the transition basically from solid fuels to liquid fuels to gaseous fuels)
- 1991, March 12, Speech, New Mexico State University: “Throughout history, civilization has progressed cyclically toward cleaner and more efficient forms of primary energy and a higher quality of life. During the industrial revolution we progressed from wood to coal. Oil fueled the great surge of post-WWII growth, allowing developed nations to move to much higher standards of living and service economies. Today we stand upon the threshold of the next cycle – a significantly more energy efficient, environmentally favorable natural gas driven economy.”
- 1992, Booklet, “An Econergenic Policy for 21st Century America”: “Market forces provided an orderly transition from the 18th century energy technology of wood, to the 19th century energy technology of coal, to our 20th century energy technology systems fueled by oil.”
- 1994, December 12, The Hefner Report “Global Turning Point”: “Transitions between fuels spring from a long history of energy and its inseparable relationships with the economy and environment – what I call econergy…Civilization has made an orderly, but cyclical progression from dirty, chemically complex, technologically crude energy systems, toward cleaner, chemically simpler, more economically sustainable, technologically sophisticated energy systems…The natural gas trend was first seen in the early 1970s in computer projections of natural gas use in the energy substitution models…We have moved from wood and coal fuels to oil and now to natural gas that is only 50% carbon, clean burning and requires an even less centralized, smaller and less capital intensive technology…The energy transitions from wood to coal to oil and now to natural gas are but small cycles in a much larger context…These energy cycles pale in comparison to the social, economic and environmental-econergenic implications of an even larger, simpler, even longer term, more elegant energy transition from solid fuels to gaseous fuels. There are predominantly two states of matter: solids and gases. Liquid is a transitional and intermediate state of matter…We see a fundamental progression from solid fuels to gaseous fuels, with a relatively short period of liquid transition.”
- 1995: Paper, “Fuels in Transition – Toward Sustainable Economic Growth: The Age of Energy Gases”: “Transitions between fuels spring from a long history of energy and its inseparable relationships with the economy and environment – what I call econergy…The energy transitions from wood to coal to oil and now to natural gas are but small cycles in a much larger context. Although the cycle of domination by each energy source seems very long term, particularly to our current generation so obsessed by the short term, these energy cycles pale in comparison to the social, economic and environmental-econergenic implications of an even larger, simpler, even longer term, more elegant energy transition: the transition from solid fuels to gaseous fuels.”
- 2002, Booklet, “The Age of Energy Gases In the New Millennium”: “My own personal philosophy of our energy future emerges from a lifetime of energy studies and differs at the bottom line from any I have seen. ‘The Age of Energy Gases’ shows what I believe to be the elegant simplicity of energy supply transitions…Our solar System and Earth, and for that matter the Universe, are basically composed of two forms of matter: solids and gases. Liquids are simply a transitional and relatively small state of matter. Therefore, in the big picture, I believe the Age of Oil to be only a liquid transition between the Age of Solids – animal dung, wood, coal and I include nuclear – and the Age of Energy Gases.”
- 2002, Booklet, “Energy and the U.S. Marketplace”: “The Age of Energy Gases shows that, over the long term, market driven energy transitions have occurred on a global scale since the 1950’s…revealing a long-term and nearly continuous transition that has moved the global economy from chemically complex, dirty solid fuels (largely wood and coal) and their centralized, capital-intensive, large scale, inefficient plants, through a liquid transition (principally oil) toward chemically simple, clean energy gases (principally natural gas, methane) and their relatively small, decentralized, less capital-intensive, highly efficient infrastructure. The Age of Energy Gases is now just beginning. Through the 21st Century natural gas will rise toward predominance of the energy marketplace and for the first time will provide the U .S. and global economies the possibility of environmentally sustainable economic growth.”
- 2006, January 25, Booklet, “Our Global Energy Future: Asia’s Opportunity,” from speech in Singapore: “Energy over human history has transitioned in great long-term waves and each of those waves have provided long-term economic pulses that lifted the standard of living for the society that rode each great energy wave. The first wave, and the origin of civilization, was based upon wood. And the second great wave was coal…The next great wave was oil…And the next great wave is what I call The Age of Energy Gases. It’s the natural gas wave that begins with methane and transcends into and culminates with hydrogen before the end of the 21st Century.
- 2007, Booklet, “The Age of Energy Gases: China’s Opportunity for Global Energy Leadership”: “…It dawned on me that possibly the big picture of energy transitions may well be elegant simplicity. In the big picture, matter in the universe exists principally in two forms – solids and gases. Liquid is a transitional and minimal state of matter…The earth is mostly solid, saturated and surrounded by gases. As liquid is a transitional and minimal state of matter, it could therefore be a clear indication that oil, a liquid, may be a comparatively limited global energy resource as compared to coal, a solid, and natural gas, a gas.”
- 2009, from Hefner’s book The Grand Energy Transition published by John Wiley & Sons: “The Grand Energy Transition (GET) is based upon my theory that in order to best understand humanity’s energy past, present, and future, we must think about all the energy sources in their form of matter – solids, liquids, and gases – rather than individual fuels such as coal (a solid), oil (a liquid), or natural gas (a gas). By doing so, we see a natural evolution of energy within the development of civilization. What is revealed by this concept is a transition of elegant simplicity that cuts through the complexity of energy use, policy, and politics. The GET or, more accurately, civilization itself through trillions of energy choices based upon economic utility is showing us the way forward and determining the future’s most likely energy winners and losers.”